There was an error in this gadget

Tuesday, 1 May 2012

对银行的坏消息


对银行的坏消息:

1。印尼可能要投资那里银行的机构减持股份。
(MBB被迫削减股份,BII售股已经延迟几次了,因为现有股价低于MBB当时的收购价和当局政策逆转。
但CIMB影响更大,因为印尼收入占了一大部分。)

新闻背景
http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 297&pid=1021319
http://www.investalks.com/forum/ ... 297&pid=1072211


2。银行业利息赚幅减少。
(近几年全球低利息环境下无可避免,但MBB有不断增加非利息收入来源如主理IPO,回教保险和Kim Eng)

30042012 banking hlib.pdf (893.66 KB)



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

印尼央行6月公佈銀行股權結構條例

東南亞
2012-04-30 11:14
(印尼‧雅加達30日訊)央行方面宣佈,將於今年6月公佈銀行股份擁有權結構條例。相關條例將在一個月內完成擬訂工作。


央行行長達爾敏‧納蘇蒂安週五在雅加達指出,有關銀行股份擁有權結構的規定,顯示政府小心處理銀行股權問題。正如他曾經說過的,
若銀行大多數股份不在一個機構或個人手上,那麼,業主會更加謹慎小心。
“有關規定適用於任何銀行,我國銀行也好,外國銀行也好。如此做並非為了限制外國人在銀行業的股權。另外我方將安排股權過渡期。”

央行向新加坡金融管理局傳達上述信息,事關星展集團接管我國“金融銀行”計劃。央行方面會見新加坡金融管理局官員時表示,
關於銀行股權限制條例出台之後,將辦理接管申請。

他指出,凡有意接管我國銀行的任何外國投資者,將受到同樣的對待。正因如此,
央行至今沒有發出新的接管銀行許可證,並駁回所有的申請。(星洲互動)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Pressure on bank’s net interest margin

By DALJIT DHESI
daljit@thestar.com.my

This is due to competition and stiffer guidelines

PETALING JAYA: Net interest margin (NIM) for banks, which has been under pressure since mid-2010,
is expected to come under further compression, with an analyst projecting it to hover around
2.2% this year compared with about 2.3% last year.

Analysts attributed the continued margin pressure to competition in certain loan segments,
stringent responsible lending guidelines, efforts to shore up deposits in view of the Basel III requirement
to have stronger liquidity and capital base, and stagnation in the overnight policy rate.

RAM Ratings head of financial institution ratings Wong Yin Ching said NIMs this year would likely
remain under pressure due to stiff price competition, particularly in certain loan segments such as
residential mortgages by offering attractive packages.

The strong drive for deposits in anticipation of the more stringent Basel III liquidity requirements
as well as to keep a healthy loans-to-deposits (LDR) ratio would keep funding costs elevated, she said.

Wong said: “NIM's outlook for a particular bank largely hinges on the institution's loan and funding mix.
In view of the potential slower growth in household loans with the imposition of the Responsible Lending Guidelines in January,
certain banks have placed greater emphasis on lending to SMEs, which generally yield higher margins.



“Banks with a high proportion of low-cost current and savings account deposits will also benefit from lower funding costs.
On the whole, we expect the average NIM for the banking system this year to hover around 2.2% compared with the estimated 2.3% in 2011.”

Growing non-interest income, therefore, would be key for banks, she said, adding that wealth management,
bancassurance and treasury-related products and services were the main areas of focus.
NIM is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks and the amount of interest paid out to depositors.
LDR, which assesses a bank's liquidity level, is the amount of a bank's loans divided by the amount of its deposits.
ECM Libra Capital head of research Leong Hon Sze said although there was an uptick from a low in January,
NIM margin fell back in February and with no directional movement of interest rates, NIM would continue
to be subjected to competitive downward pressure.

He said Maybank was expecting a contraction of 10 basis points in the group's NIM this year,
citing continued competitiveness in the financial services market resulting in thin margins for some
financing products offered due to price competition between banks.

“Banks with exposure to Indonesia face higher risk of interest margin compression,
as NIM margins in Indonesia are more than double Malaysia's, and Bank Indonesia favours lower intermediation costs,'' Leong noted.

Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Pong Teng Siew said he expected NIMs would continue to shrink this year.
He attributed this partly to the replacement of low-cost deposits to higher-cost deposits and a stagnation of banks' hire-purchase portfolio.

“Low-cost deposits, typically of no more than three years duration, placed at low rates during the global financial crisis
are now maturing and will be replaced by slightly higher cost deposits,'' he added.

Furthermore, he said the cumbersome procedures under the recent amendments to the Hire Purchase Act
as well as the lending guidelines would impact the hire-purchase portfolio of banks.

A slowdown in hire-purchase portfolio growth was negative for NIMs as the gross yield automatically dropped off
as the portfolio aged, Pong said, adding that a continuously growing hire-purchase portfolio, essentially, is needed to keep the NIM level.

Meanwhile, Alliance Research banking analyst Cheah King Yoong takes a different view. He said NIMs were expected to stabilise
or even strengthen this year with the rolling out of higher interest margin loan products and stabilisation in the cost of funds.

He expected the Economic Transformation Programme-related loans and SMEs to be the key loan drivers this year as
they were expected to yield higher interest margins compared with mortgage loan products.

“Although we believe that competition among banks to attract deposits remains high, we do not foresee competition
to increase dramatically this year since most domestic banks have healthy LDR.

“Furthermore, the moderation in our loan growth projections (11.0% this year versus 13.6% in 2011)
means that banks do not need to aggressively acquire deposits to meet the loan growth.

“Nonetheless, we anticipate banks with high exposure to retail loan segments to suffer from ongoing NIM compression,” Cheah added.

No comments:

Recent Posts