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Tuesday, 13 November 2012

什么是財政懸崖?

奧巴馬連任,市場熱烈討論的“財政懸崖"落實與否,將決定全球經濟的命運。
什么是财政悬崖?



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財政懸崖
2012/08/07-劉欣欣

財政懸崖(Fiscal Cliff)一詞最早是由美國聯準會(Fed)主席柏南克(Ben Bernanke)提出,意指到2012年底,美國政府減稅優惠措施到期,同時國會也將啟動減赤機制,將會造成政府財政支出猛然緊縮,2013年美國財政赤字將會如懸崖般陡然直線下降,是謂財政懸崖。 與財政懸崖相關的財政政策主要有4項:前美國總統小布希(George W. Bush)時期的減稅措施至2012年底到期、2%所得稅減免措施及失業補償政策延長期限屆滿、新醫療稅法案(Doc Fix)到期、減赤節支機制上路。
一旦美國財政赤字銳減呈現懸崖般直墜,將令企業雇傭與投資力道急遽減少,個人消費也會下滑,民間稅賦負擔和醫療支出則會上升。
財政懸崖被市場視為是繼歐債危機之後,下一個經濟危機的導火線。國際貨幣基金(IMF)主席Christine Lagarde、柏南克及美國財政部部長Timothy Geithner均已對此發出警告。


DIGITIMES中文網 原文網址: 財政懸崖http://www.digitimes.com.tw/tw/dt/n/shwnws.asp?id=0000296744_QP38EO9H37MNS757CKHTH#ixzz2C3UqUupB





The Fiscal Cliff Explained
“Fiscal cliff” is the popular shorthand term used to describe the conundrum that the U.S. government will face at the end of 2012, when the terms of the Budget Control Act of 2011 are scheduled to go into effect.
Among the laws set to change at midnight on December 31, 2012, are the end of last year’s temporary payroll tax cuts (resulting in a 2% tax increase for workers), the end of certain tax breaks for businesses, shifts in the alternative minimum tax that would take a larger bite, the end of the tax cuts from 2001-2003, and the beginning of taxes related to President Obama’s health care law. At the same time, the spending cuts agreed upon as part of the debt ceiling deal of 2011 will begin to go into effect. According to Barron's, over 1,000 government programs - including the defense budget and Medicare are in line for "deep, automatic cuts."
In dealing with the fiscal cliff, U.S. lawmakers have a choice among three options, none of which are particularly attractive:
  • They can let the current policy scheduled for the beginning of 2013 – which features a number of tax increases and spending cuts that are expected to weigh heavily on growth and possibly drive the economy back into a recession – go into effect. The plus side: the deficit, as a percentage of GDP, would be cut in half.
  • They can cancel some or all of the scheduled tax increases and spending cuts, which would add to the deficit and increase the odds that the United States could face a crisis similar to that which is occurring in Europe. The flip side of this, of course, is that the United States' debt will continue to grow.
  • They could take a middle course, opting for an approach that would address the budget issues to a limited extent, but that would have a more modest impact on growth.

 originally from  http://bonds.about.com/od/Issues-in-the-News/a/What-Is-The-Fiscal-Cliff.htm


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